Uptick in activity in recent weeks may be the start of a turnaround, leaving real estate market experts cautiously optimistic

First quarter highlights: 

• In the first quarter of 2026, the national aggregate home price decreased 2.0% year over year; ticked up a modest 0.7% over Q4 2025.
• The Greater Montreal Area’s aggregate home price increased 3.3% year over year, while the greater Toronto and Vancouver markets recorded declines of 4.7% and 4.5%, respectively, in the first quarter.
• Quebec City recorded the highest year-over-year aggregate price increase (10.7%) among Canada’s major regions for the eighth consecutive quarter.

The recently released Royal LePage Houseing report notes that Canada’s spring housing market got off to a slow start, with momentum tempered by economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the lingering effects of a long and snowy winter. However, activity began to pick up in recent weeks.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Forecast released April 16th, 2026, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada decreased 2.0 per cent year over year to $812,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, the national aggregate home price remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.7 per cent.

“In a typical spring, Canada’s housing market would already be gaining momentum, but persistently low consumer confidence remains a drag on activity – especially in our most expensive markets,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “That hesitation is being driven by uncertainty beyond our borders. The inflationary impact of America’s war with Iran is pushing energy prices higher, with ripple effects across the broader economy, while ongoing trade negotiations ahead of the CUSMA review are adding to concerns about economic stability and job security. For many Canadians, the headlines are hard to ignore.”

That sentiment can be seen in a Bank of Canada survey conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Canadians were asked when they believe Canada–U.S. trade tensions had – or will have – the greatest impact on the economy and inflation. Half of respondents (50%) indicated that the most significant effects are still to come, while 27 per cent believe the worst has already passed.[2]

“Three factors figure prominently in today’s sluggish market: hesitant first-time buyers, a return to sell-before-buy behaviour, and limited inventory in several key markets,” added Soper. “First-time buyers are the engine of the housing market, and when they pause, it ripples through every segment. Move-up buyers are also taking a more measured approach, often choosing to sell before committing to their next purchase; a behaviour we haven’t seen in years. In some regions, however, the issue isn’t demand – it’s supply. Meanwhile, Susan Benson, Broker with Royal LePage Lakes of Muskoka reports that,  "the Muskoka middle market has surged presenting an ideal opportunity for downsizing to a high quality affordable home or entry level lakeside property in this region." 

“What’s clear is that many Canadians still intend to move. Our sales professionals, working with buyers and sellers every day, are approaching the spring and summer markets with cautious optimism.”

According to the central bank, nearly one third (29%) of Canadians said they were likely to move within the next 12 months, up from 22 per cent from a year earlier. Similarly, 20 per cent of homeowners said they were likely to sell their home within the next year, up from 14 per cent.[3]

Canada: a market of markets

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data nationally and regionally in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 1.3% year over year to $857,300, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.4% to $577,600. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the median price of a single-family detached home and a condominium increased modestly by 1.0% and 0.4%, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.

“Despite ongoing uncertainty, the underlying fundamentals of Canada’s housing market remain sound. For buyers, the environment has improved meaningfully. Competition has eased, interest rates have stabilized, and in many parts of the country prices have levelled off – with declines in our most expensive markets, Toronto and Vancouver, as the price gap with more affordable cities continues to narrow,” added Soper.

“National trends may dominate the headlines, but regional realities are what define market conditions on the ground.”

In the first quarter, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.7% in the Greater Toronto Area and 4.5% in Greater Vancouver.

“Because of their size, softness in British Columbia and southern Ontario has an outsized impact on national averages,” said Soper. “Meanwhile, strong demand in a much more affordable Quebec market has allowed the province’s major cities to lead in both activity and price growth. On the Prairies, sales have slowed somewhat, yet home values continue to rise modestly, reflecting ongoing supply constraints. Atlantic Canada’s economy has been bolstered by a surge in Newfoundland’s energy sector and a recovery in Nova Scotia’s exports. While sales volumes have moderated, low inventory and a continued stream of interprovincial migrants seeking affordability have fuelled continued, modest home price appreciation.”

Interest rate trajectory uncertain as inflation risks reappear

Rising energy costs, driven by the escalating conflict in Iran, have introduced renewed uncertainty into the interest rate outlook, which may lead to a shift in market activity. With inflation currently sitting within the Bank of Canada’s target range, and unemployment ticking up in recent months (6.7% in February and March),[4] the overnight lending rate has remained on hold at 2.25% since last October. However, the risk of inflation reaccelerating has brought the possibility of future rate hikes back into focus.

“With inflation pressures resurfacing, the Bank of Canada has no room to lower interest rates further – and the next move could be upward,” said Soper. “For buyers planning to enter the market this year, securing a mortgage pre-approval sooner rather than later is a prudent step, particularly as rate holds have a limited shelf life. As that reality sets in, we expect more buyers to come off the sidelines through the spring and summer months.”

New construction industry receives boost from government spending

Canada’s new construction sector has faced sustained headwinds in recent years, driven by subdued investor demand in the condominium market, the rising cost of labour and materials, elevated borrowing rates and cuts to immigration. While housing starts increased six per cent year over year in 2025,[5] much of that growth was driven by an increase in purpose-built rental construction. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the number of rental units under construction in 2025 reached nearly double the 10-year average, with record levels reported in Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal.

Significant government investment, however, could help re-energize both the new construction and resale markets by supporting much-needed supply and improving overall market confidence.

In March, applications opened for the First-Time Home Buyers’ GST/HST Rebate, allowing eligible buyers to recover up to 100% of the federal sales tax on qualifying new construction homes, up to a maximum of $50,000.[6] The Ontario government has taken it a step further, agreeing to match the federal incentive by crediting the provincial portion of HST, meaning first-time buyers can save up to a total $130,000. In addition, the two governments announced the Canada–Ontario Partnership to Build, a cost-shared investment of close to $9 billion over the next decade to cut development costs and boost housing development.[7]

“For years, Royal LePage has been clear: reducing development costs and cutting unnecessary red tape are essential to improving housing affordability,” said Soper. “Canada’s housing shortage is the result of years of underbuilding, and the only way to close the demand-supply gap is to get more shovels in the ground. This won’t happen if the cost of building remains unsustainable.

“The new federal-provincial government-led initiatives are a meaningful step toward getting projects moving again. But we must stay focused on outcomes. Building more housing – and, critically, building the right types of homes that Canadians can grow into – is essential to the long-term health of both the housing market and the broader economy.”

Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 1% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.

Royal LePage House Price Survey Chart: rlp.ca/house-prices-Q1-2026   

Royal LePage Forecast Chart: rlp.ca/market-forecast-Q1-2026    

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) decreased 4.7% year over year to $1,091,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA increased a modest 0.7%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 4.5% year over year to $1,382,300 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 6.5% to $658,000 during the same period.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 4.8% year over year to $1,070,600 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 9.7% year over year to $1,528,900, while the median price of a condominium decreased 3.8% to $660,600.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area will decrease 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Greater Montreal Area

The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area increased 3.3% year over year to $645,800 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased a modest 0.8%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 6.1% year over year to $759,400 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium was flat, increasing just 0.1% to $490,900 during the same period.

In Montreal Centre, the aggregate price of a home increased 7.6% year over year to $797,300 in the first quarter of 2026. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 9.4% to $1,242,900, while the median price of a condominium was virtually unchanged, decreasing 0.2% to $588,600.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the Greater Montreal Area will increase 5% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Greater Vancouver

The aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver decreased 4.5% to $1,174,500 year over year in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region decreased modestly by 0.4%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.7% year over year to $1,660,800 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.8% to $729,000 during the same period.

In the city of Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home decreased 3.9% year over year to $1,366,800 in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 5.4% to $2,160,400, while the median price of a condominium declined 4.6% to $780,100

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Greater Vancouver will decrease 3.5% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Ottawa

The aggregate price of a home in Ottawa decreased a modest 0.5% year over year to $775,800 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased slightly by 0.6%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9% year over year to $882,200 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 2.6 per cent to $400,500 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Ottawa will increase 2% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Quebec City

The aggregate price of a home in Quebec City increased 10.7% year over year to $475,300 in the first quarter of 2026. This represents the highest year-over-year price increase among Canada’s major regions for the eighth consecutive quarter. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 4.8%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 11.1% year over year to $508,500 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 8.4% to $350,000 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Quebec City will increase 12% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Calgary

The aggregate price of a home in Calgary remained flat year over year in the first quarter of 2026, decreasing just 0.5%t to $689,100. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.1%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased just 0.8% year over year to $806,500 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 4.5% to $257,100 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Calgary will increase 1.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Edmonton

The aggregate price of a home in Edmonton decreased 1.4% year over year to $472,300 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, however, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 1.2%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.9% year over year to $521,800 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 1.9% to $205,600 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Edmonton will increase 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. 

Halifax

The aggregate price of a home in Halifax increased 1.5% year over year to $525,400 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 2.7%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 1.8% year over year to $600,200 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium decreased 0.9 per cent to $406,000 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Halifax will increase 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions.

Winnipeg

The aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg increased 3.1 per cent year over year to $424,500 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 3.6%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 2.3% year over year to $465,300 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 3.7 per cent to $276,600 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Winnipeg will increase 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast has been revised upward to reflect current market conditions. 

Regina

The aggregate price of a home in Regina increased 3.5% year over year to $397,900 in the first quarter of 2026. On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the region rose 1.9%.

Broken out by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 3.9% year over year to $439,400 in the first quarter of 2026, while the median price of a condominium increased 6.3 % to $232,800 during the same period.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Regina will increase 4.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared to the same quarter last year.  

About the Royal LePage House Price Survey

The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the most common types of housing, nationally and in 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. Housing values in the Royal LePage House Price Survey are based on the Royal LePage Canadian Real Estate Market Composite, produced quarterly through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from partner company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Additionally, commentary on housing market trends and data on price and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.

About Royal LePage

Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of approximately 20,000 real estate professionals in over 670 locations nationwide. Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own charitable foundation, the Royal LePage® Shelter Foundation™, which has been dedicated to supporting women’s shelters and domestic violence prevention programs for more than 25 years. Royal LePage is a Bridgemarq Real Estate Services® company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the symbol TSX:BRE. For more information, please visit www.royallepage.ca.

Royal LePage® is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada and is used under licence by Bridgemarq Real Estate Services®.

Sources:

[1] Aggregate prices are calculated using a weighted average of the median values of all housing types collected. Data is provided by RPS Real Property Solutions and includes both resale and new build.

[2] Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Fourth Quarter of 2025, Bank of Canada, January 19th, 2026

[3] Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Survey Data, Bank of Canada, Q4 2025

[4] Labour Force Survey, March 2026, Statistics Canada, April 10, 2026

[5] Spring 2026 Housing Supply Report, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, March 11th, 2026

[6] Ottawa launches applications for first-time home buyers’ GST/HST rebate, Royal LePage, March 20th, 2026

[7] Federal and Ontario governments launch $8.8B housing and infrastructure partnership to boost supply and affordability, Royal LePage, April 2, 2026